Now that I have at least temporarily exhausted my supply of cynical analysis of the current market I figured I might as well post something a bit more useful. The following report is my updated investment analysis of Movado Group (MOV). It is a quick read but I have included an appendix for investors who are interested in digging deeper. Here are some quick highlights that may pique your interest:
1. Trades at about 47% of tangible book
2. Trades at about 2x a very conservative liquidation value
3. Trades at about 67% of current assets minus total liabilities, making it a Ben Graham net-net
4. Has a world class brand name and selection of watches that is not factored into any of my valuations but certainly could provide an intangible margin of safety
5. Stock has pulled back to right around where even I would consider accumulating shares (and you know I am not buying anything these days)
Movado Investment Thesis
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“Warren Buffett once wrote that value investing is like an inoculation--it either takes or it doesn’t--and when you explain to somebody what it is and how it works and why it works and show them the returns, either they get it or they don’t.” -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group
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5 Best Value Investing Quotes
- Seth Klarman: “It turns out that value investing is something that is in your blood. There are people who just don’t have the patience and discipline to do it, and there are people who do. So it leads me to think it’s genetic.”
- Seth Klarman: “It sounds kind of crazy, but in times of turmoil in the market, I’ve felt a sort of serenity in knowing that I’ve checked and re-checked my work, one plus one still equals two regardless of where a stock trades right after I buy it.”
- Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital): “For forty years I’ve seen the manic-depressive cycle of investor psychology swing crazily: between fear and greed – we all know the refrain – but also between optimism and pessimism, and between credulity and skepticism. In general, following the beliefs of the herd – and swinging with the pendulum – will give you average performance in the long run and can get you killed at the extremes.”
- Bruce Greenwald (First Eagle Funds): "There are no bad days in the market. When the market is down, you’ve got bargains, and it’s lovely to think of what you are buying at low prices. When the market is up, the bargains have gone, but you’re rich.”
- Mohnish Pabrai (Pabrai Funds): “Warren Buffett has said many times that people either get value investing in five minutes or they won’t get it in five years. So, there is something in the human brain, that for some of us, makes all the difference in the world right away and the patience it requires is part of the wiring process.”