Readers,
I must apologize for my absence. This past quarter at school was uniquely intense and I was forced to give up many things that I enjoy. I am very hopeful that next quarter I will be able to keep up with the blog and will do my best to try to balance the many obligations I have in my life.
I return with updated research on Synovus (SNV). The stock has had an amazing run from $1.92 in December when I first wrote about it to around $3.56 today. I think the long-term earnings story is still intact but with a second wave of bank losses on the horizon, an investor who buys in now might suffer some initial losses before eventually realizing a substantial gain later.
As always, I appreciate your comments and questions. Here is the piece in Scribd format to preserve the formatting of charts:
Updated Research on Synovus (SNV)
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“Warren Buffett once wrote that value investing is like an inoculation--it either takes or it doesn’t--and when you explain to somebody what it is and how it works and why it works and show them the returns, either they get it or they don’t.” -Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group
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5 Best Value Investing Quotes
- Seth Klarman: “It turns out that value investing is something that is in your blood. There are people who just don’t have the patience and discipline to do it, and there are people who do. So it leads me to think it’s genetic.”
- Seth Klarman: “It sounds kind of crazy, but in times of turmoil in the market, I’ve felt a sort of serenity in knowing that I’ve checked and re-checked my work, one plus one still equals two regardless of where a stock trades right after I buy it.”
- Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital): “For forty years I’ve seen the manic-depressive cycle of investor psychology swing crazily: between fear and greed – we all know the refrain – but also between optimism and pessimism, and between credulity and skepticism. In general, following the beliefs of the herd – and swinging with the pendulum – will give you average performance in the long run and can get you killed at the extremes.”
- Bruce Greenwald (First Eagle Funds): "There are no bad days in the market. When the market is down, you’ve got bargains, and it’s lovely to think of what you are buying at low prices. When the market is up, the bargains have gone, but you’re rich.”
- Mohnish Pabrai (Pabrai Funds): “Warren Buffett has said many times that people either get value investing in five minutes or they won’t get it in five years. So, there is something in the human brain, that for some of us, makes all the difference in the world right away and the patience it requires is part of the wiring process.”